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Investment and securities firm Piper Jaffray sees strong market conditions for Coinstar’s Redbox unit, and has consequently raised its estimates for Coinstar. According to trading site Benzinga, PJ Analysts Michael Olson and Andrew Murphy have raised their CY11 DVD EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) margin estimate to 19.5% from 18.9%. This upwards revision leads to an increase of Coinstar EPS (Earnings Per Share) from $2.57 to $2.75. Said the analysts:

“With retail rental store closures, a growing kiosk footprint, and deals in place with all major content owners, Redbox is positioned to see material revenue growth and margin expansion over the next several years.”

Do you agree with the Piper Jaffray analysts’ rosy outlook on Redbox, Insiders? The home video marketplace is a tough one, and it’s just getting tougher. What will the next few years bring for Redbox, and will it be up to the challenge?

(via Benzinga)

56 Responses to “Piper Jaffray Bullish on Redbox Parent Coinstar”

  1. Visitor [Join Now]
    tinybrat [visitor]

    Absolutely dead on. With nothing left in my town other than Redbox and Safeway to rent from, Redbox has nothing to worry about! Their shares are really under-valued compared to Netflix, I expect to see their shares double within 12-18 months. As Blockbuster prepares for bankruptcy, and NCR decides to sell its struggling kiosk business and split ways with BB, I see redbox dominating the rental industry for dvd, blu-ray and video games… But hey, thats just my opinion :-)

  2. Visitor [Join Now]
    John Small [visitor]

    Coinstar is pretty much as over-valued as Netflix except Netflix pulls in a steady and decent profit while Coinstar does not.

    PJ is out to lunch on this one. Coinstar has virtually no long term value and short term value is decreasing. I suppose we will see at the end of the month.

  3. Visitor [Join Now]
    Firstlawofnature [visitor]

    I’m sure at every point in time in their existence you would claim the same about Netflix and Redbox regardless of their fundamentals. I suppose you won’t share what you expect to see at the end of the month for Coinstar correct?

    • Visitor [Join Now]
      Joleen [visitor]

      Sounds like you should just worry about your own go-nowhere comments!!!!
      Who are you anyways you act like your the moderator or something?

    • Visitor [Join Now]
      John Small [visitor]

      I suspect Coinstar will do the same thing they always do which is issue numbers that do not tell the true story of their costs and paper over the thin veneer that disguises the failings of the company in an attempt to convince investors to bid up the share price ever higher so that insiders can continue to dump stock and get rich while the end result of their dishonesty gets paid by the foolish buyers.

      • Visitor [Join Now]
        Farva [visitor]

        It’s pretty evident by your other posts that you are heavily biased against Redbox. Why would anyone give any merit to what you “suspect”?

        Did you have a bad Redbox experience before that instilled you with so much disdain for the company? Maybe you returned a movie incorrectly one time and got charged extra nights.

      • Visitor [Join Now]
        Firstlawofnature [visitor]

        And could you be specific and share the numbers you take issue with?

        • Visitor [Join Now]
          John Small [visitor]

          I’ll be specific as soon as Coinstar is specific.

        • Visitor [Join Now]
          Firstlawofnature [visitor]

          Well done lad. What are there 6 or 7 pages of numbers in their quarterly press releases? You seem to be unable to use any of them to form a cohesive argument to support your points.

      • Visitor [Join Now]
        Vernon Dent [visitor]

        I have to agree with JS.

        As a CPA/JD/MBA, I can manipulate GAAP standards and FASB statements even bend the space-time continuum, contrary to the laws of physics.

        Not since the hey-day of AOL have I seen financial statements that are as soft and convoluted as Coinstar’s. Even though its auditor signed off, doesn’t mean anything but how ludicrous accounting has become. All the large audit shops have been convicted of aiding and abetting fraud. I know, I used to work for two–before and after grad school. Luca Pacioli is spinning or maybe laughing in his grave!

        Eventually, Coinstar will have to come clean; and when it does, JS certainly will be vindicated.

        • Visitor [Join Now]
          Firstlawofnature [visitor]

          Great that you have a CPA/JD/MBA. Now maybe you can be specific and share what parts of the financials are ‘soft’. What do you believe is deceptive in the financials?

          And sure financials can be massaged so an accusation from any Tom, Dick or Harry can’t be fully disproven. Google could be fraud I suppose. Can you prove it’s not?

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            Vernon Dent [visitor]

            @Firstlawofnature
            “And sure financials can be massaged so an accusation from any Tom, Dick or Harry can’t be fully disproven.”

            FLON you can’t prove a negative–Law School 101. Do I have to respond any further? “Foot-in-mouth disease”.

            Sorry FLON you can teach securities analysis to a Cub Scout. I know I learned more about same from an old guy named Murray, as a nine year-old, than 19 years’ of formal education. It’s a waste of time!

            The point is that without due diligence *all* financial data is a “creative form of interpretation” [GAAP standards]. Hence the audit process which is designed to pacify the ignorant; it’s a leap of faith. FASB statements are released so frequently that it is impossible to keep current unless all waking hours are spent interpreting same.

            An example is “in-process R&D.” Coinstar is wisely exploiting this provision. Eventually, it will have to state and re-state these expenses in traditional fashion. I’m not suggesting that Coinstar’s books are “cooked” its just like the space time continuum, any decent accountant can move around bookkeeping entries, and at least temporarily, make the financial statements look better than it should. It’s legal but…borderline unethical.

            You heard this from the horse’s mouth–not ass!

            As a final note, Coinstar is a nickel & dime operation–pun intended! It’s a low margin business. I’d never invest in a low margin businesses’ equities. Too volatile!

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            Firstlawofnature [visitor]

            You’ve said nothing other than that financial statements can be manipulated. This is not an insight. Everyone knows frauds are possible and creative accounting can make things appear better than they are. Does this prevent you from ever making an investment in a company where you are not running the books? If not you must have some process that allows you to ‘believe’ the statements are accurate.

            Coinstar’s R&D is a small number and not unusual in any manner.

            High margins don’t always equate to high ROEs. Low margin can equate to high ROE. Walmart has low margins but would have made a hell of an investment 30 years ago.

  4. Visitor [Join Now]
    pootroot [visitor]

    I just knew John Small would have something to say. There is a saying JS. If you can’t say something nice then don’t say anything at all. I know almost all of us would really appreciate it.

    • Visitor [Join Now]
      Movie King [visitor]

      You betcha’ Censor the Small One!

    • Visitor [Join Now]
      John Small [visitor]

      Do you live in America? Freedom of Speech my friend. Next you’ll want to take my gun away too.

      • Visitor [Join Now]
        justme [visitor]

        Not if you promise to use it on yourself!

        • Visitor [Join Now]
          John Small [visitor]

          Such negativity. I would suggest you need to seek professional help.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            justme [visitor]

            I would suggest you seek professional help for your inferiority complex. I know you’ve had to live your whole life with the name “small” but that doesn’t mean you have to think small all the time. Maybe a good shrink could help you get rid of your “small” complex. And speaking of negativity, you’d know all about that, since that’s the only thing you post on here. Yes, I’ll say it yet again, your name really does fit you perfectly.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            John Small [visitor]

            Why thank you justme. Given the historical background of my family name, I feel it suits me just fine as well.

            I do find it sad that you need to lash out at someone so frequently though. A little anger management would do wonders for you.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            justme [visitor]

            Why, you’re welcome John Small. I do find it sad that you have to continually post comments with your so called “facts”, just to make yourself feel like a big man. A little Inferiority complex management would do you a world of good.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            John Small [visitor]

            No inferiority here. I’ve lived a long and successful life and spend most of my retirement relaxing. I do like to share information with people and some of those people get upset when the information I share goes against what they want to believe but that is not my fault.

            You just need to relax a little, son. It will do wonders for your outlook on life.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            firstlawofnature [visitor]

            ‘I’ve lived a long and successful life and spend most of my retirement relaxing.’

            Why is it that no other posters feel the need to share such information over and over again?

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            John Small [visitor]

            Probably because no other poster has had their character impugned as often.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            firstlawofnature [visitor]

            That’s not it. I’ve been flamed by some idiots and yet I don’t need to try and signal to them anything about my life.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            sandra [visitor]

            that’s because this is your pathetic life stocking this website and promoting all things redbox fact or fiction. you simply have nothing else going for you worth talking about.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            firstlawofnature [visitor]

            Guess the tanning bed business is tough for you as well.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            John Small [visitor]

            Again, FLON, for the most part I post facts about the industry and then get attacked personally.

            You try to pump up a company you own shares in.

            Big difference.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            firstlawofnature [visitor]

            Yes I’m a pumper only a loney chat board. I’m here to increase the stock price only. All my numbers are fabrications.

            You on the other hand seek the truth and the only reason you don’t ‘support’ redbox is because they don’t charge enough for rentals.

            Your nose just grew another inch.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            Firstlawofnature [visitor]

            ‘…for the most part I post facts about the industry…’

            Just noticed the Freudian slip here. For the most part JS posts facts then at other times he just pulls things out of his arss (while sipping wine by the sea of course).

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            John Small [visitor]

            I’m afraid you’ve failed once again at reading comprehension, understanding the definition of a freudian slip and attempts at humor.

            Now, in deference to Michael, I am going to refrain from responding to personal attacks since they take away from value of this board. If you have any kind of decency or respect for Michael I hope that you will do the same.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            firstlawofnature [visitor]

            ‘…I am going to refrain from responding to personal attacks since they take away from value of this board.’

            Nice strategy. When beaten quit.

            I am going to make a prediction. When coinstar reports its Q2 results JS will declare the numbers as proof positive that redbox is headed towards failure even though he will be unable to point to specific numbers to make his point.

            If only redbox would raise prices so JS could be supportive of their business model.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            The Situation [visitor]

            Agreed FLON, I would call just about everything John Small says towards Redbox a “Personal Attack” towards the company until he starts providing numbers (and accurate ones at that) and professional references to his highly unlikely allegations.

            He is smart though, not to comment when he is beat, if you look at previous posts he tends to do that often. Michael can even agree with that.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            Firstlawofnature [visitor]

            Agreed.

            We let him down easy on this one…

            ‘Given the historical background of my family name’

            He’s a retired big shot from an important family that sips wine by the sea. Rather grandiose. Sometimes I think he’s just that crazy weird dressing fat dude on the video buyers guide site. That guy hates Redbox and Netflix because they are hurting his business.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            John Small [visitor]

            When the next quarter’s results come out, I will analyze them properly and provide commentary based on that analysis. If Redbox shows improving numbers on a per machine basis then I will be applaud them in their growth. If they show continued deterioration, I will point it out.

            As always, it will be just the facts whether you agree with them or not.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            firstlawofnature [visitor]

            ‘As always, it will be just the facts whether you agree with them or not.’

            You still haven’t shown Q1 per kiosk numbers Mr. Just the Facts.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            The Situation [visitor]

            I’m very excited to see John Small analyze the numbers for this quarter. The best part will be when he makes an assumption, no matter what, that Redbox is bad, and then refuses to show the numbers or stats that he pretends like he knows how to analyze. He’s playing Devil’s advocate now…..thats adorable. (Sarcasm)

  5. Visitor [Join Now]
    The Situation [visitor]

    Honestly, it sounds like you are just jealous of the success of Redbox. Many people are, its a great concept and lets face it the originators are rich. Perhaps you are just too “Small” to pay your respects to it.

    At least they aren’t impulse liars who think that everything they say is a fact. They also aren’t guilty of doing or openly admitting to manipulating elderly widowed women to get in their attic, steal their dead husbands comic book collection and make a lifetime profit off that. Apparently all old ladies were once married to a husband with old comics and they are all carefree enough to let some random creeper in their home. That would be a fact according to Mr. Small. You were incorrect about the Paramount deal and you should own up to that.

    The great thing about the world is that we are a big fan of the term “Out with the old, in with the new”. I’m sure Michael and everyone would agree with this. Take the dvd rental world for instance, Redbox is the new, Blockbuster is the old. When you say things like “History Shows” and “Based on Previous” its all really garbage.

    I think a man with love has the ability to love others. Your constant negativity makes it clear that you are a lonely man, and I truly pity you for that. There are better ways of dealing with this John, maybe you should join one of those dating websites, then you can comment all you want…..and people might care.

    Lets leave the analysis to the pros! They got where they are for a reason.

    That is the situation!

    • Visitor [Join Now]
      John Small [visitor]

      Pretty sure the wife would object to me joining the dating site.

      Just remember, the pros loved the hell out of Enron right up until the day it collapsed.

  6. Visitor [Join Now]
    The Situation [visitor]

    So now Redbox is the future Enron? Pretty sure the wife (in this case Laurie Piechur) would object to you charming the old ladies for comic books too huh? I don’t think you have a wife, or maybe you did but then she saw how “Small” you were……..

    Still waiting for you to own up to being wrong about the Paramount deal….then I would be happy to quiet down for some time. At least until you are proven wrong again in the near future.

    Chalk one up for the Redbox!

    • Visitor [Join Now]
      John Small [visitor]

      Son, I’ll well past the age that simple insults cause me any kind of pain. I mean seriously, you think I haven’t heard them all before?

      BTW, feel free to scan back through my posts. You’ll see I posted right away when Paramount and Redbox signed their deal.

      I am surprised that you are married to Laurie Piechur though. I thought she hated Redbox. She must be some kind of angry that you are posting on this site. Don’t let her find out.

  7. Visitor [Join Now]
    The Situation [visitor]

    Actually it was clear I was noting Piechur as your wife. I guess thats your business though, twisting words to that it seems like people actually like you.

    Sadly it looks as if your grammar is slipping a bit at your age. “I’ll well past the age.” Was that an error John Small? Just admit that everything you say isn’t a fact and that you can even be wrong, and thats all I want.

    You did post right away about Paramount, but you tried to act like it was more of you being surprised than incorrect. I would appreciate you acknowledging you were plain wrong. I don’t mean to insult you, but I guess thats just a bonus.

    You claim that you don’t hate Redbox but you think their business model won’t work but you seem to find a reason to insult them in more ways than just their business model. I’ll credit you with the fact that this forum is a healthier way to cover up your insecurities than many other ways one could. It seems like you have plenty….

    • Visitor [Join Now]
      John Small [visitor]

      If you go back and read your post, your sentence regarding Piechur is in no way applied to my person. As such, grammatically, the subject is then applied to the speaker which was you. If you had wished to make it clear you would have said “your wife”, which relates to me, rather than “the wife” which relates to you. Your apology is unnecessary.

      Again, you misinterpret my current dislike of the Redbox business model with a permanent dislike of the company. I fully believe that if Redbox would up their prices (I would prefer $2.00 for the first day and $1.00 a day after that but would settle for $1.50 a day) that they could become a very successful company. I do think the longer they stick to the $1.00 a day pricing the more resistence they will get when they try to raise the price. I think current management has an terrible business mindset and should be replaced.

      Again you will notice how I refrain using insults against you. I suspect that is because, although my last name is Small, I am the bigger man.

      • Visitor [Join Now]
        The Situation [visitor]

        Yeah, my post was a reply about “The Wife” previously mentioned by you. If it was an original thread you would have a good point but you don’t. A.D.D. an issue?

        Hey look another grammatical error “has an terrible”. Just point out that you are wrong from time to time, thats what I want.

        I don’t think you are a bigger man because you don’t insult. You are just passive aggressive and sarcastic all the time because you are too “Small” to be direct with people. With that in mind, you insult more than anyone on this page. Small isn’t an appropriate last name here, it should be “Smallest” because that is how big of a man you are compared to just about anyone who comments in here.

        I’m not here to solely focus on personally attacking you, as you will see, but I have a hard time understanding your logic. You spend your days on here, pretty much bashing the reputation of Redbox at every opportunity because you think they should raise/you believe they will raise their prices. A price increase is inevitable, like when you were born in the 1920’s how much was a car? I bet its much more now is it not? If you think you are a brilliant mind for “Predicting” that prices will go up, you aren’t as smart as I give you credit for. (Yes I think you have some good points at times)

        My belief (and I am not stating this as if it were fact) is that Redbox could raise their prices at any point, but give them some credit, because in my lifetime the world has never needed a bigger break on price. The economy sucks and I think they will wait until things get better (hopefully soon) to up the prices. I think thats commendable and much better than your idea of what their business mindset should be.

        The things you say aren’t facts, you are just someone who makes up things in their head an convinces themselves that they are accurate.

        • Visitor [Join Now]
          John Small [visitor]

          I have never proclaimed my brilliance when my predictions come true. I have merely pointed out to my many detractors that they were wrong in their opinions.

          My facts are based on numbers that are easily attainable from the Coinstar quarterly results. Even FLON admitted that his numbers were incorrect when taken in context with the final results. Coinstar does not break out all expenses and costs for Redbox and IMO are skewing the results from their machines. Looking at their bottom line shows that their numbers are not as rosy as they like to proclaim. BBI used to do this all the time and I called them out on it back then too.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            The Situation [visitor]

            Ok, so if these numbers are so “Easily Attainable” (quote from comment which I am replying to) when why don’t you show us for once.

            You have a lot of bark, but no bite…..

            I’ve certainly accepted your apology about the Paramount deal, I appreciate your actions reflecting such. Maybe you aren’t so bad after all John. I’m pulling for you in the long run.

            Hopefully you can start listening to the facts instead of listening to yourself. Good luck sir.

        • Visitor [Join Now]
          firstlawofnature [visitor]

          ‘Even FLON admitted that his numbers were incorrect when taken in context with the final results.’

          Now you are flat out lying. Provide link please.

          The fat crazy guy on vbg site thinks netflix is slowing down. Love to see proof of that as well.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            rb [visitor]

            Hmnnn…Does the ‘fat crazy guy on vbg site’ look of retirement age,…have a comic book sticking out of his pocket,..perhaps a little seaweed sticking to his clothes,…maybe even referring to Netflix subscribers as ‘Redboxers’ to suggest they are all cheap, pathetic, losers…? Hmnn…… :-)

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            rb [visitor]

            Oh, and by the way FLON, I’m serious about my idea about the Redbox promo-code booklets. However, I’m now thinking instead of a booklet it would probably be better to be a strip of perforated 5 scratch-off codes, much like the strips of lottery tickets. This way the user can carry one or two perforated codes in their wallets. Also, I didn’t even realize the brilliance of my idea until I shared it BECAUSE the one thing I, and many, dislike the most about renting at a Redbox kiosk is that the $1 rental has to be put on/charged to your charge card. Many, as myself, hate to use/charge ANYTHING on our charge cards unless an absolute necessity. With my ‘idea’ you could still pay cash for the code booklet or strip at the store, and then your credit card swipe at the kiosk would just for security purposes–so long as you return your dvd next day.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            firstlawofnature [visitor]

            I think a big redbox with a $1 a night slapped across is a better form of advertising than anything else. Any budget for ad spending/couponing is better off being plowed back into more promo codes. How to drive more useage from new users is the puzzle.

          • Visitor [Join Now]
            John Small [visitor]

            Look FLON, you know you said it, I’m not going to look for the link, quit being so dishonest.

  8. Member [Join Now]
    starman15317

    John Small needs to quit trolling

    • Visitor [Join Now]
      John Small [visitor]

      Actually, I post the facts and then get trolled. But you are correct in that I should not feed the trolls. Their ignorance is well documented here.

      • Visitor [Join Now]
        The Situation [visitor]

        He’s not trolling, he’s here to “Blow this place wide open” just like Dicaprio in Shutter Island. “This place” being Redbox, and it turned out at the end of the movie, he realized he was insane……not much need to comment anymore in regards to John Small. There was nothing wrong with “This Place” (being Redbox) I saw his documentary (Shutter Island) and I know how it ends, he’s getting there. Good luck on your journey to the truth John.

        I’ll slowly make peace with John, as his recent actions have been most flattering to my point that he is constantly incorrect.