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Motley Fool says: Sell Netflix Now

Just a quick one today on an article posted by Dave over at the Motley Fool titled “3 Reasons to Sell Netflix Now“.

Can you guess what one of those reasons are? Yea, competition from Redbox…

Heavy competition : Netflix faces threats from not only Blockbuster’s (NYSE: BBI) Total Access, but also McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) and CoinStar-owned RedBox DVD rental kiosks. Many investors see this competition, as well as online movie rentals from (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), posing a significant threat to future revenue.

Now, there are many saying Netflix is doing great and you should hold or buy, but these are just some counterpoints coming from an investment club over at Motley Fool.

I am not sure what I think yet. Netflix does seem to be doing well, especially with their recent addition of streaming movies to their new Roku box, the XBox 360, as well as some other players. Since I think streaming is the future, they look to be in a good position.

However, with Redbox’s disruptive pricing model, I do see the price consumers are willing to pay for movie rentals coming down, so time will tell who comes out on top.

11 Responses to “Motley Fool says: Sell Netflix Now”

  1. Visitor [Join Now]
    Jairus [visitor]

    I want to put my 2 cents in. I think Netflix is not going away anytime soon.
    While most video store rentals are 20% catalog and 80% new release, less than 30% of Netflix’s daily shipments are new releases. In the online movies rental I think the only true competitor for Netflix is Amazon, iTunes concentrates on mainstream and new releases. So I personally think that Netflix will survive even if only on the fact that it is the main source for ppl that watch indies, foreign, small movies ( which tend to be ppl with higher incomes that like the idea of Netflix and tend not to jump from one provider to the other just to save a few dollars.

    • Member [Join Now]

      Jairus, you are missing the point. The point is that the competition is “posing a significant threat to future revenue”, which means that MF believes that future growth for this company is limited. Therefore stock, as an investment vehicle, is no longer perceived to have growth potential.
      I personnaly agree with most of your points you mentioned, and I do not think that Netflix is going away either, but I would not keep the stock, that’s for sure.

      • Visitor [Join Now]
        Jairus [visitor]

        krzys you are right, I was commenting on Netflix as regards to its business model and chances of making it in the long run. I can see how the stock would not be the best investment right now, but which stock is these days?

  2. Visitor [Join Now]
    SHAWNEE SHADOW [visitor]


  3. Member [Join Now]
    Vinane [vinane]

    I hope Netflix stays around for awhile. I use both Netflix and Redbox and even though redbox is cheap they really don’t have shit beyond mainstream new releases. Zombie Strippers was just released a couple weeks ago but Redbox doesn’t have it. Netflix did. Netflix is also great for documentaries. Redbox ignores tv shows, docs, and pretty much anything outside the mainstream. Netflix doesn’t get everything but a hell of a lot more than redbox does. Beyond mainstream new releases I don’t thing Netflix has much to worry about from Redbox.

  4. Member [Join Now]
    Radman [radman]

    When it comes to the core business(17.99/month customer) for Netflix itrequires that a huge portion of its subscribers not rent more than 12 movies/month. If every customer rented more than that they would lose money from postage alone, never mind all the other costs. Netflix is banking on the fact that most users will not overuse/abuse the amount of rentals or they would lose money hand over fist from the postage rates alone.

    Now if you are a $17.99 Netflix customer only renting the new releases and you are renting fewer than 12 movies/month and a Redbox is more convenient; you might just leave Netflix to save some money. I’d have to think that their are a significant amount of customers that fall under this category or Netflix wouldn’t be where they are today.

    Now Netflix has lost their customer that was making them money, plus the average cost per customer has gone up.

    The video business is having some serious cash flow problems with all the undercutting of prices.

  5. Visitor [Join Now]
    whimpy254 [visitor]

    I also think that netflix will stay around because of the wilder range of movies, I also like redbox but i dont know if you have notice that redbox has cut its time back for you to return the movies from 9pm to 7pm so while you guys are asking peoples to sale their netflix stock you need to keep your eye on redbox stock how can they continue at price their charging so look for the time to get shorter or the price to go up

    • Visitor [Join Now]
      abcd [visitor]

      I hadn’t noticed the time change to return movies by. In fact, Redbox’s own website hasn’t noticed either:

      “For single-night rentals, when are DVDs due back at a redbox?
      To pay just $1.00 plus tax, make sure you get your DVD back by 9:00 p.m. the evening after you rented.”

      Can you double-check wherever you saw that and post back again?

  6. Member [Join Now]

    I don’t think Redbox is much of a threat to Netflix. For $9.99 you can get unlimited movies streamed to your computer or TV without having to go anywhere, and that’s in addition to the DVDs they mail you. Redbox is great for the newest releases, but if you’re going to pay to rent very many in a month, you might as well go with Netflix instead. (I actually tend to use both.)

  7. Visitor [Join Now]
    pll [visitor]

    Hi folks,

    The Motley Fool also has a counter point article, also written by Dave Mock, entitled “3 Reasons to buy Netflix now”:

    And among reasons to do so, though not mentioned in the article, but mentioned in the CAPS service at TMF, and on the Netflix boards at TMF, are that Redbox doesn’t pose a serious threat to Netflix, but rather, poses a much more serious thread the Blockbuster.

    Among reasons mentioned in the article are that Netflix continues to adapt to change and has announced several partnerships for streaming its content. Among these partnerships are Roku, TiVo, Xbox360, and LG. Each let you stream content directly from Netflix to your TV without needing a DVD. The cost is free for existing Netflix members as long as you have a capable device.

    This is above and beyond the ability to watch streaming content with a Windows Media capable PC or Intel-based Mac with Silverlight.

    In short, the reasons to buy Netflix are many, and the long term prospects for the company are very good, especially as physical media becomes obsolete.
    The long-term prospects for physical media rental are not good. Given Netflix’s ever-growing library of over 100,000 titles, over 12,000 of which are streamable (also a number which is always increasing), and the pure convenience of their service, I’ll put my money on Netflix over Redbox or Blockbuster…

    Disclaimer: I am not an employee, or otherwise affiliated with any company mentioned in this post. I am a customer of some or all of the companies or services mentioned.

  8. Visitor [Join Now]
    cusesoftie [visitor]

    I would love if Netflix lowered their prices. I recently switched from 3-Movies at a time to 2. I think I am holding on to the service because of the streaming movies and TV shows that I never have time to watch, but keep putting off. I think I am paying way too much for movies that sit and collect dust because I know I can keep them for weeks without a daily fee. Overall, Netflix has pretty good features if you utilize them well. Plus, you can buy previously owned movies for less than Redbox – great for Christmastime. In the end, I love Redbox to pieces because it’s only $1 to get a movie right when you want it – can’t beat that!